Newly described 'solar clock' can precisely predict solar cycle events years in advance

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notFritzArgelander
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Newly described 'solar clock' can precisely predict solar cycle events years in advance

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Post by notFritzArgelander »


Scopes: Refs: Orion ST80, SV 80EDA f7, TS 102ED f11 Newts: AWB 130mm, f5, Z12 f5; Cats: VMC110L, Intes MK66,VMC200L f9.75 EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker IV, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5
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Re: Newly described 'solar clock' can precisely predict solar cycle events years in advance

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Post by messier 111 »


very interesting , thx .
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Re: Newly described 'solar clock' can precisely predict solar cycle events years in advance

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Post by Jones »


I made a graph of monthly sunspot numbers from 1610 to present. It is 20 feet long, as a scroll. One thing you can see is there is no repeatable cycle to predict anything except the 11 year cycle. I will post a pic of compressed version.
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Re: Newly described 'solar clock' can precisely predict solar cycle events years in advance

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Post by notFritzArgelander »


Jones wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 2:47 pm I made a graph of monthly sunspot numbers from 1610 to present. It is 20 feet long, as a scroll. One thing you can see is there is no repeatable cycle to predict anything except the 11 year cycle. I will post a pic of compressed version.
You are right, but I doubt that with that tool one could see anything more than that. These folks are not just predicting the 11 year cycle of numbers but the 22 year cycle of numbers and magnetic polarity. These folks are using a lot more data than raw monthly number counts.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 86670/full
The Sun’s variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the “Hale Cycle”) as they march from their origin at ∼55° latitude to the equator, over ∼19 years. We will discuss the end point of that progression, dubbed “terminator” events, and our means of diagnosing them. In this paper we expand on the Extended Solar Cycle framework to construct a new solar activity “clock” which maps all solar magnetic activity onto a single normalized epoch based on the terminations of Hale Magnetic Cycles. Defining phase 0*2π on this clock as the Terminators, then solar polar field reversals occur at ∼ 0.2*2π, and the geomagnetically quiet intervals centered around solar minimum start at ∼ 0.6*2π and end at the terminator, thus lasting 40% of the cycle length. At this onset of quiescence, dubbed a “pre-terminator,” the Sun shows a radical reduction in active region complexity and, like the terminator events, is associated with the time when the solar radio flux crosses F10.7 = 90 sfu. We use the terminator-based clock to illustrate a range of phenomena that further emphasize the strong interaction of the global-scale magnetic systems of the Hale Cycle: the vast majority, 96%, of all X-flares happen between the Terminator and pre-Terminator. In addition to the X-rays from violent flares, rapid changes in the number of energetic photons—EUV spectral emission from a hot corona and the F10.7 solar radio flux—impinging on the atmosphere are predictable from the Terminator-normalized unit cycle, which has implications for improving the fidelity of atmospheric modelling.
Scopes: Refs: Orion ST80, SV 80EDA f7, TS 102ED f11 Newts: AWB 130mm, f5, Z12 f5; Cats: VMC110L, Intes MK66,VMC200L f9.75 EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker IV, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5
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Re: Newly described 'solar clock' can precisely predict solar cycle events years in advance

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Post by GCoyote »


So this would be roughly analogous to the realization that humans could predict the change in seasons by observing the night sky.
Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.
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Re: Newly described 'solar clock' can precisely predict solar cycle events years in advance

#6

Post by GCoyote »


Jones wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 2:47 pm I made a graph of monthly sunspot numbers from 1610 to present. It is 20 feet long, as a scroll. One thing you can see is there is no repeatable cycle to predict anything except the 11 year cycle. I will post a pic of compressed version.
Please do.
Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.
Gary C

Celestron Astro Master 130mm f5 Newtonian GEM
Meade 114-EQ-DH f7.9 Newtonian w/ manual GEM
Bushnell 90mm f13.9 Catadioptric
Gskyer 80mm f5 Alt/Az refractor
Jason 10x50 Binoculars
Celestron 7x50 Binoculars
Svbony 2.1x42 Binoculars
(And a bunch of stuff I'm still trying to fix or find parts for.)
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