Thoughts on eclipse next year, April 8

[helicon]

I hope it turns out ok. Kind of hard to tell this far in advance but who knows. I've unfortunately decided to sit it out. But the caveat is that I will travel to the next zone of totality for the next eclipse. I see that Iceland will be in the path of totality for the August 2026 eclipse...

[AntennaGuy]

FYI, I just saw this headline (and I kid you not): "NASA Says Total Solar Eclipse Will Cross U.S. on April 8."
Wow. My questions: (1) What would we do, or how would we know this, without NASA? (2) Did they get confirmation from any other sources?

[Mike Q]

Update on the Ohio forecast for eclipse day. 25 percent chance of rain and 62 percent cloud cover. So if you are coming to Ohio for this, your best bet would be up on the western basin of Lake Erie

[AstroBee]

(1) What would we do, or how would we know this, without NASA? (2) Did they get confirmation from any other sources?

The Chinese were pretty good at predicting Solar and Lunar eclipses thousands of years ago.

[helicon]

For those who can't make it this year Iceland will be in the path of totality in the 2026 eclipse.

Heck I already said that. Gives a reason to go to Iceland though besides the seafood, glaciers, and volcanoes.

[OzEclipse]

My thoughts on eclipse next year April 8...there is no total solar eclipse next year on April 8.
Note that although there are no solar eclipses, in my statement above I used an ellipsis.

[Mike Q]

The blue dot is my location for the eclipse. I am only 25 miles east of being directly under dead center of it. EMA is predicting 200,000 visitors for area. Wyandot and Crawford Counties combined don't have 100,000 in them. This is going to be a mess.

[OzEclipse]

The blue dot is my location for the eclipse. I am only 25 miles east of being directly under dead center of it. EMA is predicting 200,000 visitors for area. Wyandot and Crawford Counties combined don't have 100,000 in them. This is going to be a mess.

Hi Mike,

I presume you mean the blue dot is home? The loss of totality duration is far from linear with distance. For this eclipse, being 20 miles either side of the centreline loses you about 10s duration. Staying at your home, 25 miles from the centreline, the loss of totality duration will be between 10-15s duration. It's not worth moving any closer on eclipse day. Stay and have the comforts of home.

Joe

[Mike Q]

The blue dot is my location for the eclipse. I am only 25 miles east of being directly under dead center of it. EMA is predicting 200,000 visitors for area. Wyandot and Crawford Counties combined don't have 100,000 in them. This is going to be a mess.

Hi Mike,

I presume you mean the blue dot is home? The loss of totality duration is far from linear with distance. For this eclipse, being 20 miles either side of the centreline loses you about 10s duration. Staying at your home, 25 miles from the centreline, the loss of totality duration will be between 10-15s duration. It's not worth moving any closer on eclipse day. Stay and have the comforts of home.

Joe

Yeah the blue dot is home. Current weather forecast is for 62 percent cloud cover and a chance of rain.

[OzEclipse]

The blue dot is my location for the eclipse. I am only 25 miles east of being directly under dead center of it. EMA is predicting 200,000 visitors for area. Wyandot and Crawford Counties combined don't have 100,000 in them. This is going to be a mess.

Hi Mike,

I presume you mean the blue dot is home? The loss of totality duration is far from linear with distance. For this eclipse, being 20 miles either side of the centreline loses you about 10s duration. Staying at your home, 25 miles from the centreline, the loss of totality duration will be between 10-15s duration. It's not worth moving any closer on eclipse day. Stay and have the comforts of home.

Joe

Yeah the blue dot is home. Current weather forecast is for 62 percent cloud cover and a chance of rain.

I recall you saying in an earlier post something like you weren't going to travel and that you might not even bother to look at it?

The weather along the south shore of Eerie east of Cleveland is very slightly better than down where you are but only by about 5%. But given your apathy to the event, it's probably not worth the effort. During the rapid cooling that occurs pre-totality, low to mid-level cloud sometimes just disappears seconds before totality. On the other hand, the opposite can occur but I've seen skies open numerous times, I've only seen them close once...at Niagara Falls, annular eclipse, May 9(?) 1994.

Joe

[Mike Q]

Hi Mike,

I presume you mean the blue dot is home? The loss of totality duration is far from linear with distance. For this eclipse, being 20 miles either side of the centreline loses you about 10s duration. Staying at your home, 25 miles from the centreline, the loss of totality duration will be between 10-15s duration. It's not worth moving any closer on eclipse day. Stay and have the comforts of home.

Joe

Yeah the blue dot is home. Current weather forecast is for 62 percent cloud cover and a chance of rain.

I recall you saying in an earlier post something like you weren't going to travel and that you might not even bother to look at it?

The weather along the south shore of Eerie east of Cleveland is very slightly better than down where you are but only by about 5%. But given your apathy to the event, it's probably not worth the effort. During the rapid cooling that occurs pre-totality, low to mid-level cloud sometimes just disappears seconds before totality. On the other hand, the opposite can occur but I've seen skies open numerous times, I've only seen them close once...at Niagara Falls, annular eclipse, May 9(?) 1994.

Joe

We will set up for it because we are in the area of totality, but with April being what April is, I don't expect to see anything other then it will get darker at a weird time of day. What I will find interesting will be watching how the animals react.

[AstroBee]

The blue dot is my location for the eclipse. I am only 25 miles east of being directly under dead center of it. EMA is predicting 200,000 visitors for area. Wyandot and Crawford Counties combined don't have 100,000 in them. This is going to be a mess.

[Mike Q]

Here is an update for those of you that are planning on traveling to Ohio for the eclipse. The weather guessesr are currently predcting two days of rain, which are Sunday and Tuesday. Temps are trending upward into the low 60s. Eclipse day is currently predicted to be 62 degrees, 25 percent cloud cover, with winds out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph. This is the current guess for the north central Ohio which would include the cities of Marion, Bucyrus, Upper Sandusky, and Findlay. All of which are in the path of totality.

[gregl]

I almost forgot the most important things.

You see, we're leaving tomorrow morning, making a long road trip out of the 1500 miles or so to our observing site. We'll spend a few days visiting friends and stopping at some of the beautiful and historical sites along the way. We also like to check out some of the small out-of-the-way towns and their cafes and local history museums.

So we spent today packing up the camper and making sure the 28-year-old truck, with a quarter of a million miles on it, is in good roadworthy condition (it is). I put the tripod and parallelogram mount for the 10x binos behind the truck's front seat and then went off loading other things. There is quite a load as we'll be gone three weeks through temperatures from 20F to 90F with the possibility of snow at the beginning and some sweaty days at the end. And for some reason I've never figured out, my sweetheart likes to take lots of clothes and food.

We finished dinner and packed the last of the groceries in the camper and I was about to collapse on the couch with the novel I've been reading when Honey told me to take out the trash. But I couldn't find the tattered old jacket I wear in my workshop and for chores around here. I looked through all the rooms and both shop buildings. I almost gave up but finally wandered back to the back bedroom, which is only used for guests. And there on the bed sat the two pairs of binos, the eclipse glasses, and the Baader solar film. Because space is tight in the truck and camper we would not have missed those things until E-day morning, and I'm glad they didn't get left as you would have heard the scream across the entire eclipse path and perhaps even across the ocean. Said gear is now safely packed behind the passenger seat, which is about the only place that hasn't already been filled with something else of little consequence to the goal of the trip. Whew!

[AstroBee]

I have all of my gear that I am taking currently set up in my living room. Including all cables, backup cables, batteries, laptops, adapters, etc. etc. I mean EVERYTHING. Even the clothes I plan on bringing. The only thing missing at this point are the road snacks. Sadly, the long range forecasts are now starting to come in and it looks like the ENTIRE path from San Antonio, TX to Rochester, NY are going to be under clouds... Oh well, can't control mother nature!

[Bigzmey]

Weather Channel says it is still too early for an accurate forecast, we just have to wait and see.

https://weather.com/science/space/news/ ... april-2024

[Mike Q]

I have all of my gear that I am taking currently set up in my living room. Including all cables, backup cables, batteries, laptops, adapters, etc. etc. I mean EVERYTHING. Even the clothes I plan on bringing. The only thing missing at this point are the road snacks. Sadly, the long range forecasts are now starting to come in and it looks like the ENTIRE path from San Antonio, TX to Rochester, NY are going to be under clouds... Oh well, can't control mother nature!

Ohio is still showing clear on the eighth, but rain is showing before and after it. If we can actually see it, I am going to be amazed.

[OzEclipse]

I have all of my gear that I am taking currently set up in my living room. Including all cables, backup cables, batteries, laptops, adapters, etc. etc. I mean EVERYTHING. Even the clothes I plan on bringing. The only thing missing at this point are the road snacks. Sadly, the long range forecasts are now starting to come in and it looks like the ENTIRE path from San Antonio, TX to Rochester, NY are going to be under clouds... Oh well, can't control mother nature!

Ohio is still showing clear on the eighth, but rain is showing before and after it. If we can actually see it, I am going to be amazed.

I am not an expert on USA weather and have not looked at the model predictions but I have chased eclipses all over the world.
A few points to note about what I have learned about reading weather prediction information:-

1) 2 weeks out is way too far ahead to be paying too much attention to weather modelling.
2) Models, not apps, provide weather predictions. Apps display model outputs. Compare multiple models to see how the model is predicting your local weather 2-3 days out. ie today, you should be looking at the prediction in 2-3 days time then observe how well each model is getting it right. That is the model to use 2-3 days ahead of the eclipse.
3) If the cloud is ground coupled low to mid cumulous or altocumulus, pre-totality cooling can cause such cloud to disappear into thin air allowing observation of the eclipse in clear sky.
4) If the cloud is thin, high cirrus, during totality, the absence of unidirectional light minimises the number of scattering points in the clouds making totality with inner corona visible through the thin cloud.
5) The visibility of the approach and retreat of the umbral shadow is highly enhanced when seen through a layer of thin cirrus.
6) If there is rain on the day before and day after in Ohio, the weather system movement only has to slow down or speed up a little to wipe you out

I have seen two eclipses through thin cloud. The enhanced shadow passage did not make up for the loss of subtle outer coronal details but it was certainly not a disappointment.

Joe

[Mike Q]

Two weeks is where I always start actually paying attention to the weather. This time of year the weather patterns are usually fairly consistent in their comings and goings. Toss in the fact that we are running about 3 weeks ahead in weather as far as temps and precipitation goes and yes it certainly puts a question mark on the 8th. While I wouldn't bet the farm on it being clear, right now I wouldn't necessarily bet against it either.

[Mike Q]

Here is the current forecast for north central Ohio for anyone that is interested. We have gone from 90 percent cloud cover to clear and now are at 45 percent cloud cover.