Massive(?) Comet Inbound 2023 A3(Tsuchinshan-ATLAS)

[OzEclipse]

C/2023 A3 ( Tsuchinshan-ATLAS )

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Picture of Comet McNaught, 2007. This great comet was just visible in the middle of the day, visible through cloud, and could be photographed in bright civil twilight, filling the frame of a 500mm lens at 1/30s ISO 200 f4. Alas, Tsuchinshan-ATLAS will not be this spectacular!

Source of following information: Seiichi Yoshida's Bright Comet Page http://www.aerith.net/comet/catalog/2023A3/2023A3.html
Updated on March 4, 2023
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Comet 2023 A3 ( Tsuchinshan-ATLAS ) was discovered on January 9 and is currently magnitude 18 and 6.7 AU from the Sun. Current predictions based on standard light curve modelling estimate the maximum magnitude could reach as high as mag 0 in late September. At this time it will be near the celestial equator and accessible to observers in both hemispheres.

Current observations estimate the nucleus to be 0.3”. Using this figure and the current 6.7 AU distance to estimate the size of the comet results in a value of 1400km. At this early stage, this estimate and calculation comes with a very large uncertainty.

To visualise the appearance of a mag 0 comet, get a pair of reading glasses and view a mag 0 star, Rigel, Vega, or Alpha Centauri and view it's defocussed image through the glasses.

Post perihelion, the Sun Comet Earth is in a good position to favour forward scatter enhancement of dust particles that may cause a significant increase in brightness depending upon the amount of dust released at perihelion. Best viewing geometry occurs at post perihelion, consequently this possibility is enhanced.


* Profile
Discovery Date January 9 and February 22, 2023
Magnitude 18.7 mag, 18.0 mag
Discoverer
Purple Mountain Observatory's XuYi Station, Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) search program

* Orbital Elements
Epoch 2023 Feb. 25.0 TT = JDT 2460000.5
T 2024 Sept. 28.55963 TT Rudenko
q 0.3904059 (2000.0) P Q
z +0.0006401 Peri. 308.59081 +0.36275685 +0.90020587
+/-0.0030246 Node 21.58224 +0.91805884 -0.30086181
e 0.9997501 Incl. 139.08539 -0.15992321 +0.31481988
>From 155 observations 2022 Dec. 22-2023 Feb. 28, mean residual 0".3.

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The pre-dawn view from mid-southern latitudes on October 1, 2024

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The pre-dawn view from mid-northern latitudes on October 1, 2024

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The early evening view from mid-northern latitudes on October 14, 2024

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[helicon]

Wow, what an amazing show we have upcoming. Thanks for the heads up Joe.

[pakarinen]

So many "spectacular" comets have been duds, that I'll temper my enthusiasm for now. But, hey, you never know...

It *would* be great to see something magnificent.

[KathyNS]

I am cautiously optimistic for a good show. But anyone old enough to remember Comet Kohoutek (C/1973 E1) will not be placing any bets on its brightness quite yet.

[OzEclipse]

Of course comets can fizzle. But this reminds me of the greatest comet of the past 50 years. Discovered very early, distant and bright. My statements were all qualified. But it always pays to be prepared rather than caught with your pants down.

A friend of mine is a midwife and has to apply for leave 6-9 months in advance so we’re watching this and she might put in a leave application soon to make sure she can get the leave exactly when she wants. If it fizzles she can cancel the leave at short notice because the hospital is so short staffed, cancelling leave isn’t a problem.

Joe

[Unitron48]

I'm hopeful! Looking forward to a spectacular one!!

Dave

[messier 111]

I really hope to have a good show, only the future will tell.

[AstroBee]

I'm not holding my breath that it survives its close solar pass.

[OzEclipse]

I'm not holding my breath that it survives its close solar pass.

The perihelion distance isn't that close so current thinking is that it should survive.

[kt4hx]

So many "spectacular" comets have been duds, that I'll temper my enthusiasm for now. But, hey, you never know...

It *would* be great to see something magnificent.

I am cautiously optimistic for a good show. But anyone old enough to remember Comet Kohoutek (C/1973 E1) will not be placing any bets on its brightness quite yet.

That is why Comet West was largely ignored by the media in 1975/76 - the failure of Kohoutek. Comet West turned in a very impressive show, and I recall it fondly in the pre-dawn skies of March 1976. That all said, I am excited to hear about this (cautiously of course). Comets do their own thing, as we all know, but a little optimism isn't a bad thing. We will just have to see how this all pans out. Thank you Joe!

Hopefully I will still be alive by then!

[helicon]

Didn't note Comet West but remember Hale-Bopp quite vividly. What a great show that was somewhat unexpected.