AAS: modeling super flares

[notFritzArgelander]

https://aasnova.org/2019/08/16/launchin ... AluXLET9mI

[Don Quixote]

Thank you nFA for posting this interesting link.

I have read that the 1859 event melted telegraph wires.

A friend of mine works at a research facility studying the strategic affect of such an event today. They seem to take pretty seriously the possibility.

[notFritzArgelander]

It would not be pretty. We really don't have any clue how frequently these things occur.

[Don Quixote]

If I remember correctly what he told me he is focused on the domestic infrastructure side of things.

[notFritzArgelander]

I modeled nuclear weapon effects, HEMP, high altitude electromagnetic pulse, for DoD in the 1980s. This would be similar. Transportation not hardened by countermeasures would fail promptly. Computers and power distribution systems are gone.

[helicon]

Wow this is highly significant notFritz and I was not aware of this phenomenon.

[chasmanian]

nFA,

I am wondering about this.
would you tell me what you think about a couple things?

would we get any advance warning that such a thing was about to happen?
if this happened in the winter, I am picturing chaos in the cold weather areas. no heat. not good.

[notFritzArgelander]

nFA,

I am wondering about this.
would you tell me what you think about a couple things?

would we get any advance warning that such a thing was about to happen?

That's the good news! You'd have some hours of warning. Geomagnetic storms that produce auroras take about 2-3 days to arrive. The Carrington event arrived in 18 hours. A more energetic event would arrive sooner likely.

Because doing nothing in response to a warning would be catastrophic responsible adults would ground air traffic, turn off the electric power grid, etc. for the duration of the geomagnetic storm that would follow. That is the only inexpensive countermeasure.

Protecting against the event beforehand to operate through it would be rather pricey. Some institutions might need to do that. Commercial systems could protect themselves just by turning off and waiting.

if this happened in the winter, I am picturing chaos in the cold weather areas. no heat. not good.

If folks are reasonable and turn off the utilities it would be uncomfortable for a few days. If they leave the utilities on you'd have to replace the power distribution system.

[Don Quixote]

It is my understsnd that we would have about 9 hours to set for a major mass ejection.

One of the cost components in Military equipment is the "hardening" of systems.
I was aboard the USS Makin Island for its maiden deployment. I asked about this when I was in the engineering control room. It is s classified topic, but I was told the ship is hardened. I have a customer who works in the industry which poroduces the hardened wiring.

In the civilian infrastructure this would be extravagantly expensive and would mean retrofitting. It will never be done. The solution is apparently some coordination of control to shut down the grid during such an event or so to speak firewall the multitudinous generating sources that feed the grid as well as the possibility hardening the control center computer systems. A giant circuit breaker system.
That is how I understand this.
A group of us here have purchased automobiles or small trucks that have Old school ignition systems.

[notFritzArgelander]

Given that the Carrington event followed 18 hours after the observed solar flare, only 9 hours would require a more energetic event. The time between the eruption of the flare and CME and the arrival of effects at Earth is energy dependent. So one gets a different warning time for different flare energies.

Hardening against EMP effects from nuclear weapons does double duty as hardening against solar flares, at least under cover of the atmosphere. Space systems aren't so fortunate. Charged particles can be deposited directly into the electronics and cause component failures or upsets.

Perhaps more information than you would want is at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hardening

[chasmanian]

wow. thank you very much nFA!!
all fascinating.

and thank you too Mark!