AAS: modeling super flares
- notFritzArgelander
- In Memory
- Articles: 0
- Posts: 14925
- Joined: Fri May 10, 2019 4:13 pm
- 4
- Location: Idaho US
- Status:
Offline
-
TSS Awards Badges
AAS: modeling super flares
Scopes: Refs: Orion ST80, SV 80EDA f7, TS 102ED f11 Newts: AWB 130mm, f5, Z12 f5; Cats: VMC110L, Intes MK66,VMC200L f9.75 EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker IV, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5
- Don Quixote
- Articles: 0
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
Thank you nFA for posting this interesting link.
I have read that the 1859 event melted telegraph wires.
A friend of mine works at a research facility studying the strategic affect of such an event today. They seem to take pretty seriously the possibility.
I have read that the 1859 event melted telegraph wires.
A friend of mine works at a research facility studying the strategic affect of such an event today. They seem to take pretty seriously the possibility.
- notFritzArgelander
- In Memory
- Articles: 0
- Posts: 14925
- Joined: Fri May 10, 2019 4:13 pm
- 4
- Location: Idaho US
- Status:
Offline
-
TSS Awards Badges
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
It would not be pretty. We really don't have any clue how frequently these things occur.
Scopes: Refs: Orion ST80, SV 80EDA f7, TS 102ED f11 Newts: AWB 130mm, f5, Z12 f5; Cats: VMC110L, Intes MK66,VMC200L f9.75 EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker IV, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5
- Don Quixote
- Articles: 0
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
If I remember correctly what he told me he is focused on the domestic infrastructure side of things.
- notFritzArgelander
- In Memory
- Articles: 0
- Posts: 14925
- Joined: Fri May 10, 2019 4:13 pm
- 4
- Location: Idaho US
- Status:
Offline
-
TSS Awards Badges
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
I modeled nuclear weapon effects, HEMP, high altitude electromagnetic pulse, for DoD in the 1980s. This would be similar. Transportation not hardened by countermeasures would fail promptly. Computers and power distribution systems are gone.
Scopes: Refs: Orion ST80, SV 80EDA f7, TS 102ED f11 Newts: AWB 130mm, f5, Z12 f5; Cats: VMC110L, Intes MK66,VMC200L f9.75 EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker IV, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5
- helicon
- Co-Administrator
- Articles: 592
- Posts: 12370
- Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 1:35 pm
- 4
- Location: Washington
- Status:
Online
-
TSS Awards Badges
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
Wow this is highly significant notFritz and I was not aware of this phenomenon.
-Michael
Refractors: ES AR152 f/6.5 Achromat on Twilight II, Celestron 102mm XLT f/9.8 on Celestron Heavy Duty Alt Az mount, KOWA 90mm spotting scope
Binoculars: Celestron SkyMaster 15x70, Bushnell 10x50
Eyepieces: Various, GSO Superview, 9mm Plossl, Celestron 25mm Plossl
Camera: ZWO ASI 120
Naked Eye: Two Eyeballs
Latitude: 48.7229° N
Refractors: ES AR152 f/6.5 Achromat on Twilight II, Celestron 102mm XLT f/9.8 on Celestron Heavy Duty Alt Az mount, KOWA 90mm spotting scope
Binoculars: Celestron SkyMaster 15x70, Bushnell 10x50
Eyepieces: Various, GSO Superview, 9mm Plossl, Celestron 25mm Plossl
Camera: ZWO ASI 120
Naked Eye: Two Eyeballs
Latitude: 48.7229° N
- chasmanian
- Pluto Ambassador
- Articles: 0
- Posts: 439
- Joined: Sat May 11, 2019 1:06 am
- 4
- Location: USA
- Status:
Offline
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
nFA,
I am wondering about this.
would you tell me what you think about a couple things?
would we get any advance warning that such a thing was about to happen?
if this happened in the winter, I am picturing chaos in the cold weather areas. no heat. not good.
I am wondering about this.
would you tell me what you think about a couple things?
would we get any advance warning that such a thing was about to happen?
if this happened in the winter, I am picturing chaos in the cold weather areas. no heat. not good.
- notFritzArgelander
- In Memory
- Articles: 0
- Posts: 14925
- Joined: Fri May 10, 2019 4:13 pm
- 4
- Location: Idaho US
- Status:
Offline
-
TSS Awards Badges
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
That's the good news! You'd have some hours of warning. Geomagnetic storms that produce auroras take about 2-3 days to arrive. The Carrington event arrived in 18 hours. A more energetic event would arrive sooner likely.chasmanian wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:18 pm nFA,
I am wondering about this.
would you tell me what you think about a couple things?
would we get any advance warning that such a thing was about to happen?
Because doing nothing in response to a warning would be catastrophic responsible adults would ground air traffic, turn off the electric power grid, etc. for the duration of the geomagnetic storm that would follow. That is the only inexpensive countermeasure.
Protecting against the event beforehand to operate through it would be rather pricey. Some institutions might need to do that. Commercial systems could protect themselves just by turning off and waiting.
If folks are reasonable and turn off the utilities it would be uncomfortable for a few days. If they leave the utilities on you'd have to replace the power distribution system.if this happened in the winter, I am picturing chaos in the cold weather areas. no heat. not good.
Scopes: Refs: Orion ST80, SV 80EDA f7, TS 102ED f11 Newts: AWB 130mm, f5, Z12 f5; Cats: VMC110L, Intes MK66,VMC200L f9.75 EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker IV, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5
- Don Quixote
- Articles: 0
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
It is my understsnd that we would have about 9 hours to set for a major mass ejection.
One of the cost components in Military equipment is the "hardening" of systems.
I was aboard the USS Makin Island for its maiden deployment. I asked about this when I was in the engineering control room. It is s classified topic, but I was told the ship is hardened. I have a customer who works in the industry which poroduces the hardened wiring.
In the civilian infrastructure this would be extravagantly expensive and would mean retrofitting. It will never be done. The solution is apparently some coordination of control to shut down the grid during such an event or so to speak firewall the multitudinous generating sources that feed the grid as well as the possibility hardening the control center computer systems. A giant circuit breaker system.
That is how I understand this.
A group of us here have purchased automobiles or small trucks that have Old school ignition systems.
One of the cost components in Military equipment is the "hardening" of systems.
I was aboard the USS Makin Island for its maiden deployment. I asked about this when I was in the engineering control room. It is s classified topic, but I was told the ship is hardened. I have a customer who works in the industry which poroduces the hardened wiring.
In the civilian infrastructure this would be extravagantly expensive and would mean retrofitting. It will never be done. The solution is apparently some coordination of control to shut down the grid during such an event or so to speak firewall the multitudinous generating sources that feed the grid as well as the possibility hardening the control center computer systems. A giant circuit breaker system.
That is how I understand this.
A group of us here have purchased automobiles or small trucks that have Old school ignition systems.
- notFritzArgelander
- In Memory
- Articles: 0
- Posts: 14925
- Joined: Fri May 10, 2019 4:13 pm
- 4
- Location: Idaho US
- Status:
Offline
-
TSS Awards Badges
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
Given that the Carrington event followed 18 hours after the observed solar flare, only 9 hours would require a more energetic event. The time between the eruption of the flare and CME and the arrival of effects at Earth is energy dependent. So one gets a different warning time for different flare energies.
Hardening against EMP effects from nuclear weapons does double duty as hardening against solar flares, at least under cover of the atmosphere. Space systems aren't so fortunate. Charged particles can be deposited directly into the electronics and cause component failures or upsets.
Perhaps more information than you would want is at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hardening
Hardening against EMP effects from nuclear weapons does double duty as hardening against solar flares, at least under cover of the atmosphere. Space systems aren't so fortunate. Charged particles can be deposited directly into the electronics and cause component failures or upsets.
Perhaps more information than you would want is at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hardening
Scopes: Refs: Orion ST80, SV 80EDA f7, TS 102ED f11 Newts: AWB 130mm, f5, Z12 f5; Cats: VMC110L, Intes MK66,VMC200L f9.75 EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker IV, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5
- chasmanian
- Pluto Ambassador
- Articles: 0
- Posts: 439
- Joined: Sat May 11, 2019 1:06 am
- 4
- Location: USA
- Status:
Offline
Re: AAS: modeling super flares
wow. thank you very much nFA!!
all fascinating.
and thank you too Mark!
all fascinating.
and thank you too Mark!
Create an account or sign in to join the discussion
You need to be a member in order to post a reply
Create an account
Not a member? register to join our community
Members can start their own topics & subscribe to topics
It’s free and only takes a minute