why the low pandemic death rate in Germany?

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notFritzArgelander
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why the low pandemic death rate in Germany?

#1

Post by notFritzArgelander »

France is at 5%. Italy at 10%. Germany is at 0.5%.

Lessons to be learned... https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... rm=nprnews
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Richard
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#2

Post by Richard »

Well RSA is no death at the moment we are also having a lock down from tomorrow , but this being a 3rd world is much more scary, as it hit this area much later and the stats could go thru the roof soon
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#3

Post by notFritzArgelander »

Richard wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:09 pm
Well RSA is no death at the moment we are also having a lock down from tomorrow , but this being a 3rd world is much more scary, as it hit this area much later and the stats could go thru the roof soon
Best wishes to you....
Scopes: Refractors: Orion ST80, SV ED80 A f7; Newtonians: Z12 f5; Catadioptrics: VMC110L, Intes MK66. EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker III, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5, Orion Sirius EQG
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#4

Post by Lady Fraktor »

In Slovakia we currently have 216 active cases,12 new in the last 24 hours, 7 people have recovered and been released and 2 critical cases (first positive cases found) with no deaths so far.
🇸🇰
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#5

Post by helicon »

In California as of 5 minutes ago:
2724 cases for California, 1056 for Bay Area, 59 deaths
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#6

Post by notFritzArgelander »

Lady Fraktor wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:13 pm
In Slovakia we currently have 216 active cases,12 new in the last 24 hours, 7 people have recovered and been released and 2 critical cases (first positive cases found) with no deaths so far.
That's excellent! Under the circumstances....
helicon wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:44 pm
In California as of 5 minutes ago:
2724 cases for California, 1056 for Bay Area, 59 deaths
At least that's not as bad as in Italy....
Scopes: Refractors: Orion ST80, SV ED80 A f7; Newtonians: Z12 f5; Catadioptrics: VMC110L, Intes MK66. EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker III, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5, Orion Sirius EQG
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#7

Post by Lady Fraktor »

Very true and I am glad the government here reacted when and how they did.
My Italian vacation this summer is off now unfortunately.
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Proper Telescopes: Antares 105 f/15, Celestron 150 f/8, Stellarvue NHNGDX 80 f/6.9, TAL 100RS f/10, TS 102 f/11, UR 70 f/10, Vixen ED115s f/7.7
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#8

Post by helicon »

helicon wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:44 pm
In California as of 5 minutes ago:
2724 cases for California, 1056 for Bay Area, 59 deaths
In contrast NY is around 28,000 cases....
-Michael
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#9

Post by j.gardavsky »

notFritzArgelander wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:58 pm
France is at 5%. Italy at 10%. Germany is at 0.5%.

Lessons to be learned... https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... rm=nprnews
Because of the generally low level of skills in applied mathematics.

Sorry,
JG
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#10

Post by notFritzArgelander »

j.gardavsky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:22 pm
notFritzArgelander wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:58 pm
France is at 5%. Italy at 10%. Germany is at 0.5%.

Lessons to be learned... https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... rm=nprnews
Because of the generally low level of skills in applied mathematics.

Sorry,
JG
:lol: Haha!
Scopes: Refractors: Orion ST80, SV ED80 A f7; Newtonians: Z12 f5; Catadioptrics: VMC110L, Intes MK66. EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker III, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5, Orion Sirius EQG
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#11

Post by notFritzArgelander »

notFritzArgelander wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:27 am
j.gardavsky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:22 pm
notFritzArgelander wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:58 pm
France is at 5%. Italy at 10%. Germany is at 0.5%.

Lessons to be learned... https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... rm=nprnews
Because of the generally low level of skills in applied mathematics.

Sorry,
JG
:lol: Haha!
Just to be clear... there is a good chance that there are systematic difference in how the statistics are collected nationally.
There might be a bit of bias too. Folks like to find a reason to take credit for a good result even if the result is randomly generated or caused by something completely different. Still it's an interesting observation.
Scopes: Refractors: Orion ST80, SV ED80 A f7; Newtonians: Z12 f5; Catadioptrics: VMC110L, Intes MK66. EPs: KK Fujiyama Orthoscopics, 2x Vixen NPLs (40-6mm) and BCOs, Baader Mark IV zooms, TV Panoptics, Delos, Plossl 32-8mm. Mixed brand Masuyama/Astroplans Binoculars: Nikon Aculon 10x50, Celestron 15x70, Baader Maxbright. Mounts: Star Seeker III, Vixen Porta II, Celestron CG5, Orion Sirius EQG
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#12

Post by Arsene37 »

Hello !
notFritzArgelander wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:47 am
Just to be clear... there is a good chance that there are systematic difference in how the statistics are collected nationally.
There might be a bit of bias too. Folks like to find a reason to take credit for a good result even if the result is randomly generated or caused by something completely different. Still it's an interesting observation.
Yes, there is a very bias : in both cases, the percentage is computed by death people over known infected (tested or not) people ; in Germany, tests have been done very early and for a large numbers of people (last week, there were 160000 people tested each week, as much as in Italy since the beginning, see here in french :crying-yellow: ); in France, only suspected people coming to the hospital are tested.
And you may take in account that tests are different in different countries.
Take care of you and family !
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#13

Post by j.gardavsky »

For most people in Germany are sinus, or logarithmus, just a dead language, eventually to be found on the ancient tombs inscriptions during a holiday trip to Greece or Turkey for the intellectual elites.
Hence, you can't await much.
In my former life, I have been on projects including applied statistics and data mining, and risk analysis, so I believe to know what to expect,
JG
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#14

Post by Richard »

Absolutely 3rd world dont know it could be really bad or good as they dont travel a lot lets hope for the best, but with this virus you only need 1 to spread like a domino
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#15

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Richard wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:26 pm
Absolutely 3rd world dont know it could be really bad or good as they dont travel a lot lets hope for the best, but with this virus you only need 1 to spread like a domino
Here's some hopeful news, a report from Kaapstad: https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/1196641 ... 10-minuten . For those who need a translator, it is about the development of a new 10 minute test developed by Senegal and England. Nothing concrete yet but if it works out, testing is key. If only we had enough tests not just for the ones with symptoms but also for the carriers, that would be a game changer.
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#16

Post by stewe »

Arsene37 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:17 am
Yes, there is a very bias : in both cases, the percentage is computed by death people over known infected (tested or not) people ; in Germany, tests have been done very early and for a large numbers of people (last week, there were 160000 people tested each week, as much as in Italy since the beginning, see here in french :crying-yellow: ); in France, only suspected people coming to the hospital are tested.
And you may take in account that tests are different in different countries.
Take care of you and family !
Arsène
I agree that this is probably the largest bias, i.e., the difference between the detection efficiency of infected people in different countries. BUT in Germany, there are still no massive-scale tests such as in Korea, so accounting for that, the overall mortality rate must be even smaller.

At the same time, Germany is expecting a situation similar to that in Italy:
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germa ... a-52925064
:cry:
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#17

Post by pakarinen »

Totally unscientific, but I'm beginning to wonder if there's a genetic resistance to this thing. New York I understand - very high population density per square mile - but Northern Italy has just been slammed. I should check the stats for Sicily and S. Italy just to compare.
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#18

Post by notFritzArgelander »

pakarinen wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:31 pm
Totally unscientific, but I'm beginning to wonder if there's a genetic resistance to this thing. New York I understand - very high population density per square mile - but Northern Italy has just been slammed. I should check the stats for Sicily and S. Italy just to compare.
N Italy has a higher density population than S Italy.
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#19

Post by SkyHiker »

pakarinen wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:31 pm
Totally unscientific, but I'm beginning to wonder if there's a genetic resistance to this thing. New York I understand - very high population density per square mile - but Northern Italy has just been slammed. I should check the stats for Sicily and S. Italy just to compare.
NY is just getting started. I suspect it will be much worse than Italy. Large apartment buildings with common heat and air conditioning ducts may contribute a lot! As for Italy, they seem to have a fairly high percentage of elderly; also, almost everyone killed had some sort of ailment.

Tonight we will breeze past Italy and China. According to a Reuters poll 2.3% of Americans were diagnosed with the virus (more than 7M not 75K). Though that is number is speculative, given the shortage of tests who knows, it could be right.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21D2XJ

There are a lot of word games, like taking pride in a low estimated mortality rate thanks to the fact that the number of cases are exploding.
... Henk. :D Telescopes: 6" Mak-Newt (Comet Hunter), ES ED127CF, ES ED80, Zhumell Z12, Coulter Odyssey 10, AT6RC, Venture RX-7, Celestron Skymaster 20x80, Mounts and tripod: Losmandy G11S, AVX, LXD55, Tiltall, Cameras: Fuji X-a1, Canon SX40, Xt, XSi, T6, ELPH 100HS, DIY: Dob and camera barndoor trackers, afocal adapter, Dob with foldable base and Az/Alt setting circles, Accessories: SSAG, Plossls, Barlows, Telrad, laser collimators (Seben LK1, Z12, Howie Glatter), Cheshire, 2 Orion RACIs 8x50, Software: DSS, ImageMagick, PHD, Nebulosity, Photo Gallery, Gimp, CHDK
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#20

Post by Arsene37 »

Hi !
notFritzArgelander wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:58 pm
N Italy has a higher density population than S Italy.
And they are the poor part of Italy, so they don't travel, cruise or have holidays in China ! (in my sense)
Arsène
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